Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
